Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Tampa Bay Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rse actually high since double-dip recession are rare and the U.S. economgy grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty He predicted that the current economicf downturn will end aroune September but that the unemploymentt rate will remain high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quicklgy as it usually does after a recession, Regaliaz said.
Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becausee of thefederal government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwound once the economh begins to recover, higher interest ratew could choke off improvemenr in the housing markeft and business investment, he said. “Th economy has got to be running on its own by the middlw ofnext year,” Regaliaz said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. historyg was preceded by heavuydebt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recession will be lowed if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federal Reserve, Regaliwa said.
If President Obama appoints hiseconomixc adviser, Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that wouldd signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longet time, he said. A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaq administrationis “not somethingb the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of smal l business owners expect the recession to last at least anothedtwo years, according to a survey of Intuitt Payroll customers.
But 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullis on their own abilities but bearish on the factore they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketinbg for . “Even in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small businesws owners by found that 57 percent thought the econom wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thought the econom was improving. More than half planned to decreases spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’as Web site.